China · GDP

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

$881.1K Volume
31/01/2027 00:00
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<1.0%
$64.8K Volume
1%
1.0–2.0%
$74.1K Volume
1%
2.0–3.0%
$44.8K Volume
1%
3.0–4.0%
$81.2K Volume
1%
4.0–5.0%
$220.4K Volume
89%
5.0–6.0%
$80.6K Volume
8%
6.0-7.0%
$83.6K Volume
1%
7.0–8.0%
$62.5K Volume
1%
8.0–9.0%
$53K Volume
1%
9.0%+
$116.1K Volume
1%

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.

The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for China Annual GDP Growth 2026?
4.0–5.0% dominates the field at 89%; the nearest challenger, 5.0–6.0%, trades at just 8%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for China Annual GDP Growth 2026?
With 89% implied for 4.0–5.0%, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the China Annual GDP Growth 2026 market resolve?
Mark 31 Jan 2027 (161 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on China Annual GDP Growth 2026?
$881.1K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade China Annual GDP Growth 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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