This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
No Change
$5.8K Volume
99%
25 bps decrease
$4.8K Volume
1%
50+ bps increase
$4.8K Volume
1%
25 bps increase
$5.5K Volume
1%
50+ bps decrease
$3.7K Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Bank of Canada Decision in July?
No Change dominates the field at 99%; the nearest challenger, 25 bps decrease, trades at just 1%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Bank of Canada Decision in July?
With 99% implied for No Change, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the Bank of Canada Decision in July market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 15 Jul 2026 (6 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Bank of Canada Decision in July?
Traders have put $509 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Bank of Canada Decision in July on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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