The Elon Musk tweet count market is one of Polymarket's longest-running weekly series. Traders buy and sell shares on how many times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) will post on X during a fixed one-week window, with the total split into brackets. Each bracket trades between $0 and $1, and its price is the market's live estimate of the probability that the final count lands in that range. This page always tracks the current live market in the series: when one week resolves, the tracker switches to the next cycle automatically.
How the weekly cycle works
Each market in the series covers a precisely defined window, running from 12:00 PM ET on its opening day to 12:00 PM ET on its closing day. Polymarket usually lists overlapping windows - for example one running Friday to Friday and another Tuesday to Tuesday - so at any moment more than one cycle is live. Once a window closes and resolves, a fresh market for the following week is listed. That is why individual market URLs change every cycle while this tracker page stays put.
What counts as a post
The counting rules are stricter than they look. Under the official market rules, only main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts count toward the total. Replies do not count, with one exception: when X surfaces a reply on the main feed, the tracker registers it. Deleted posts still count as long as they stay up long enough to be captured, which takes about five minutes. Community reposts that the tracker does not register are excluded from the total.
How the market resolves
The resolution source is the Post Counter figure at xtracker.polymarket.com, Polymarket's dedicated public tracking tool, which also lets anyone export the list of counted posts. If the tracker fails to update in line with the rules, X itself serves as a secondary resolution source. Because resolution is mechanical - a number read at a deadline - this series avoids the interpretation disputes that sometimes affect news-driven markets.
Reading the odds
Bracket prices move constantly as the week progresses. Early in a window, traders price mostly off Musk's recent posting pace, which has historically swung from a few hundred posts a week to well over a thousand. As the deadline approaches, the live count progressively rules brackets in or out, and the price of the winning range converges toward $1. The sharpest moves come when Musk's activity suddenly spikes around product launches, political controversies or breaking news.
Why this series is popular
Elon Musk is one of the most-watched accounts on X, and his posting volume is famously unpredictable. This market turns that unpredictability into a single tradeable number, which makes it a favorite for short-horizon traders: every week brings a fresh market, a hard deadline and a public live count to trade against. Recent weekly cycles have regularly cleared millions of dollars in trading volume.
Using this tracker
The card above shows the current cycle with its front-runner bracket and a countdown to close, and the grid lists every live window in the series with its own leader and timer. The FAQ below is generated from the live odds of the current market. Bookmark this page rather than an individual weekly market: the weekly slugs expire when their window closes, while this URL always points at the live cycle.
