This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A reduction to the top income bracket for long term capital gains tax (20%) within market timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for individuals and can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
Yes is priced at 13% and No at 88%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
Traders currently imply a 13% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
Total traded volume on this market is $2.1K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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