This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
December 31
$9.4K Volume
22%
Resolved 1
June 30
$96.5K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Tesla release Optimus by?
The market prices Yes at only 18%, with No at 82%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will Tesla release Optimus by?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 18%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will Tesla release Optimus by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (157 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will Tesla release Optimus by?
Total turnover stands at $105.9K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will Tesla release Optimus by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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