This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
December 31
$58.8K Volume
4%
Resolved 1
June 30
$96.5K Volume
No
Relevant Guides
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Tesla release Optimus by?
Yes is priced at 4% and No at 97%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will Tesla release Optimus by?
Traders currently imply a 4% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will Tesla release Optimus by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (59 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will Tesla release Optimus by?
Total traded volume on this market is $155.2K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will Tesla release Optimus by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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