This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Economy
· U.S. x Iran
· Geopolitics
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?
20+
$451.6K Volume
99%
60+
$445.5K Volume
1%
80+
$751.3K Volume
1%
40+
$1.6M Volume
1%
About This Market
AI Analysis
The prediction market regarding ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz is currently showing a 25.0% probability that the specified number of vessels will pass through by the end of April, with a trading volume of $937K. This market is significant as it reflects traders' expectations about maritime activity in a crucial global shipping lane, which is vital for oil transportation and international trade. Monitoring these probabilities can provide insights into geopolitical stability and economic conditions affecting the region.
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