Geopolitics · Ukraine Map

Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?

$341.7K Volume
01/01/2027 04:59
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December 31
$147.4K Volume
13%
Resolved 5
February 28
$71K Volume
No
March 31
$36.5K Volume
No
April 30
$6.2K Volume
No
May 31
$37.6K Volume
No
July 31
$43K Volume
No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, (50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.

Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances

Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Claimed Russian Territory

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will Russia enter Khatnie by?
Yes is priced at 13% and No at 88%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will Russia enter Khatnie by?
Traders currently imply a 13% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will Russia enter Khatnie by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (59 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will Russia enter Khatnie by?
Total traded volume on this market is $341.7K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will Russia enter Khatnie by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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