Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.

If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.

This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.

If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.

If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.