This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Yes is the outsider here at 5%, while No trades at 95%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 5%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Traders have put $650 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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