This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Weather
· Science
· Mt. Vesuvius
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
Yes
$434 Volume
5%
About This Market
Similar Markets
Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?
23°C
Yes 41¢No 59¢
22°C
Yes 28¢No 72¢
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?
29°C
Yes 34¢No 66¢
30°C
Yes 27¢No 73¢
Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 10?
21°C
Yes 55¢No 45¢
22°C
Yes 37¢No 63¢
Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 10?
28°C
Yes 42¢No 58¢
29°C
Yes 25¢No 75¢
Highest temperature in NYC on June 10?
80-81°F
Yes 34¢No 66¢
78-79°F
Yes 27¢No 73¢
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 10?
30°C
Yes 26¢No 74¢
31°C
Yes 25¢No 75¢
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?
25°C
Yes 74¢No 26¢
19°C or below
Yes 50¢No 50¢
Highest temperature in Taipei on June 10?
25°C
Yes 34¢No 66¢
24°C
Yes 33¢No 67¢
