Weather · Science

Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

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$650 Volume

31/12/2026 00:00

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.

If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

Yes is priced at 5% and No at 95%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

Traders currently imply a 5% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

Total traded volume on this market is $650, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.