This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Politics
· Geopolitics
· World
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Yes
$43.9K Volume
15%
About This Market
Similar Markets

Iran closes its airspace by...?
June 30
Yes 99¢No 1¢
June 15
Yes 99¢No 1¢

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31
Yes 69¢No 31¢
October 31
Yes 58¢No 42¢

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
Yes 62¢No 38¢
Yes 44¢No 56¢

Fed Decision in June?
No change
Yes 99¢No 1¢
25 bps decrease
Yes 1¢No 99¢

Israel closes its airspace by...?
June 30
Yes 27¢No 73¢
June 15
Yes 19¢No 81¢

Presidential Election Winner 2028
Yes 16¢No 84¢
Yes 15¢No 85¢

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Yes 24¢No 76¢
Yes 9¢No 91¢

Elon Musk # tweets June 2 - June 9, 2026?
220-239
Yes 68¢No 32¢
200-219
Yes 34¢No 66¢