This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
December 31, 2026
$193.1K Volume
5%
June 30, 2027
$682 Volume
25%
December 31, 2027
$876 Volume
24%
Relevant Guides
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by?
The current front-runner is June 30, 2027 at 23%, ahead of December 31, 2027 at 22%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by?
Traders currently imply a 23% chance for June 30, 2027. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2028 (424 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by?
Total traded volume on this market is $294, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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