Trump out as President by April 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.

A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market regarding Donald Trump's potential exit from the presidency by April 30, 2026, currently reflects a low probability of 0.6%, with a trading volume of $9.8 million. This market will resolve positively if Trump resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to hold the office for any duration before the deadline. Understanding this market is crucial for investors and political analysts, as it highlights the prevailing sentiment surrounding Trump's political stability and the implications for future electoral dynamics.