Elon Musk · OpenAI

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

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$11.3K Volume

31/12/2027 00:00

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This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day.

This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day.

This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal.
- Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

The current front-runner is SpaceX at 94%, ahead of OpenAI at 6%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.

What do traders predict for SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

Traders currently imply a 94% chance for SpaceX. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2027 (494 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

Total traded volume on this market is $11.3K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.