SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans?

The Supreme Court has heard arguments on the merits of state laws that would limit participation in certain girls' and boys' sports teams based on biological sex at birth.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that states may limit inclusion in boys' or girls' sports leagues based on biological sex at birth by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to impose these limitations in some sports leagues but not others (e.g. based on age), this market will resolve to "Yes."

A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the challenged state laws may take effect.

Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the relevant laws may lawfully be enforced will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.

If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally prevents states from imposing laws that limit participation in girls' and boys' sports based on biological sex at birth, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.