Politics · Crypto

SBF released from custody in 2026?

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$448.5K Volume

31/12/2026 00:00

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for SBF released from custody in 2026?

Yes is priced at 4% and No at 96%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for SBF released from custody in 2026?

Traders currently imply a 4% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the SBF released from custody in 2026 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on SBF released from custody in 2026?

Total traded volume on this market is $448.5K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade SBF released from custody in 2026 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.