This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for OPEC dissolves in 2026?
Yes is the outsider here at 7%, while No trades at 94%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for OPEC dissolves in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 7%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the OPEC dissolves in 2026 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (181 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on OPEC dissolves in 2026?
Total turnover stands at $30.6K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade OPEC dissolves in 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
