On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
The market prices Yes at only 16%, with No at 84%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 16%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will another country leave OPEC in 2026 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (181 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$119.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will another country leave OPEC in 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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