OPEC · Middle East

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

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$161.1K Volume

31/12/2026 00:00

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On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Yes is priced at 7% and No at 93%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Traders currently imply a 7% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Will another country leave OPEC in 2026 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Total traded volume on this market is $161.1K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Will another country leave OPEC in 2026 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.