This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Lai Ching-te impeached by?
Yes is priced at 3% and No at 97%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Lai Ching-te impeached by?
Traders currently imply a 3% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Lai Ching-te impeached by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (130 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Lai Ching-te impeached by?
Total traded volume on this market is $1.4M, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Lai Ching-te impeached by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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