This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
July 23
$2.2K Volume
17%
July 24
$2K Volume
23%
July 25
63%
July 31
$351 Volume
54%
August 15
$617 Volume
58%
August 31
$1.9K Volume
69%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Houthis successfully target shipping by?
It's a genuine race: August 31 edges the field at 63%, barely ahead of August 15 at 58%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for Houthis successfully target shipping by?
Traders give August 31 a 63% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Houthis successfully target shipping by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (40 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Houthis successfully target shipping by?
Total turnover stands at $113.9K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Houthis successfully target shipping by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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