This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for China coup attempt before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 4%, while No trades at 96%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for China coup attempt before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 4% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the China coup attempt before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on China coup attempt before 2027?
Total turnover stands at $22. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade China coup attempt before 2027 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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