A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Aisha Wahab
$2.7K Volume
94%
Melissa Hernandez
$440 Volume
4%
Wendy Huang
$731 Volume
1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
$935 Volume
2%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
$503 Volume
5%
Carin Elam
$394 Volume
1%
Matt Ortega
$579 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
At 94%, Aisha Wahab has pulled far clear of Victor Aguilar Jr. (3%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Traders price Aisha Wahab at a 94% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the CA-14 Special Election Winner market resolve?
Mark 18 Aug 2026 (38 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Total turnover stands at $6.3K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade CA-14 Special Election Winner on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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