Politics · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham out as UK PM by...?

$4.2K Volume
01/01/2027 04:59
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August 31
$1.8K Volume
1%
December 31
$2.5K Volume
7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.

Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).

Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.

If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.

If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Andy Burnham out as UK PM by?
The field is wide open: December 31 tops it at just 6%, with August 31 close behind at 1%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Andy Burnham out as UK PM by?
Right now the market's best guess is December 31 at 6% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Andy Burnham out as UK PM by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 1 Jan 2027 (132 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Andy Burnham out as UK PM by?
Traders have put $4.2K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Andy Burnham out as UK PM by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.

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