This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution Source: www.metoffice.gov.uk
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
At 86% for Yes versus 14% for No, the order book sees little doubt here. Even so, the price stays live and can swing on fresh news.
What do traders predict for Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Traders price Yes at a 86% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record market resolve?
Mark 1 Oct 2026 (40 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
$782 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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