Polymarket News & Analysis | Daily Prediction Market Insights
Investigation
From Fort Bragg to Tel Aviv: The Polymarket Insider-Trading Arrests That Are Now Reshaping Prediction Markets
A US Army soldier indicted over $409K in Maduro-capture bets. An Israeli Air Force major charged for trading the Iran-strike date. A wallet that hijacked a $7M Ukraine market through UMA. Three congressional candidates fined for betting on their own races. The seven authenticated cases that are forcing prediction markets - and governments - to reckon with insider trading.
Investigation
The Polymarket Ceasefire Resolutions That Both Sides Are Calling Scandals: $203M Iran NO, $20.9M Hezbollah YES
Two big April-2026 Polymarket markets settled in opposite directions despite both arguably violating their own rules: US-Iran extended-by-Apr-22 ($203M, 3 UMA disputes) settled NO; Israel-Hezbollah extended-by-Apr-26 ($20.9M, 2 UMA disputes) settled YES. We verified the gamma API ourselves and walk through every fact.
