Oil · SPR

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?

$14K Volume
09/09/2026 23:59
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225M
$206 Volume
2%
240M
$579 Volume
4%
255M
$2.1K Volume
32%
270M
$393 Volume
26%
285M
$9.3K Volume
75%
300M
$1.5K Volume
99%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before August 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached.

If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before August 28, 2026, by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.

Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
At 98%, 300M has pulled far clear of 285M (74%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
Traders price 300M at a 98% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28 market resolve?
The market runs until 9 Sep 2026 (49 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?
Total turnover stands at $14K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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