This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Yes is priced at 8% and No at 93%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Traders currently imply a 8% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (128 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Total traded volume on this market is $63.2K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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