Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon beginning on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it.
This market will resolve to "Kai" if Kai Cenat's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than IShowSpeed's individual counter.
This market will resolve to "Speed" if IShowSpeed's individual in-game death counter displays a higher final value than Kai Cenat's individual counter.
If the two counters display the same final value, this market will resolve "50-50".
This market will resolve based on the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube, when the broadcast of the marathon ends.
The values displayed on the counters will be used regardless of how they are calculated. It will not matter whether Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode.
If both individual counters are not displayed at the time IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube ends, this market will resolve according to the most recent counter values available.
If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the counters at that point.
The marathon will be considered to have ended if IShowSpeed ends his official broadcast on YouTube and does not resume broadcasting with the individual in-game death counters visible within 12 hours.
The resolution source for this market will be the individual in-game death counters displayed on IShowSpeed's official broadcast on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@IShowSpeed). Footage from the official broadcasts may also be used to verify the counters.
Resolution Source: www.twitch.tv
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?
Speed dominates the field at 97%; the nearest challenger, Kai, trades at just 3%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?
Traders price Speed at a 97% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths market resolve?
Mark 31 Aug 2026 (20 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?
$18K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
Similar Markets
August 1734%YesNo
August 1621%YesNo
50-6945%YesNo
70-8919%YesNo
August 3193%YesNo
August 2686%YesNo
Falling (again)94%YesNo
Projectiles (again)88%YesNo
3+ minutes98%YesNo
8+ minutes92%YesNo
Jazz Chisholm50%YesNo
Tarik Skubal50%YesNo
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia38%YesNo
Manual Neuer38%YesNo


