This market will resolve based on the office, between United States Senator and President of the United States, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first officially announces that she is running for in the 2028 election cycle by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to resolve this market in favor of the corresponding outcome, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The formation of an exploratory committee, or a statement that she is exploring or considering a run, will not qualify, nor will any filing that is not accompanied by an announcement.
If the listed individual does not announce that she is running for either listed office by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither". An announcement of a run for the US House of Representatives will not be relevant for purposes of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
President
$375 Volume
62%
Senate
$620 Volume
38%
Neither
$331 Volume
4%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?
The current front-runner is President at 60%, ahead of Senate at 38%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?
Traders currently imply a 60% chance for President. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2027 (494 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028?
Total traded volume on this market is $1.3K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Will AOC announce a run for Senate or President before 2028 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
