This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
What This Market Asks
This market poses a single binary question: will any individual month of 2026 turn out to be the hottest version of that month ever recorded. It does not ask about the year as a whole. If even one month — a record-breaking March, say, or a record August — exceeds every previous reading for that same month, the market resolves “Yes”. If every month of 2026 falls short of its own historical record, it resolves “No”. A tie with a previous record month also counts as “Yes”.
Background and Significance
Monthly temperature records are a sharper, faster signal than the annual average. Through 2023 and 2024 the world saw an extraordinary run in which month after month set a new record for that month, driven by a strong El Niño layered on top of long-term warming. This market captures whether that streak of monthly records continues into 2026 or finally breaks. Because it needs only one qualifying month out of twelve, the “Yes” side can settle early in the year, which makes the timing of seasonal anomalies as important as their size.
Key Factors Traders Watch
- Whether the year opens in an El Niño, neutral, or La Niña state, which strongly tilts the early-month anomalies.
- How much headroom each month has — some months hold records that are easier to beat than others.
- The steady rise in the background warming trend, which nudges every month closer to its record.
- Short-lived events such as volcanic eruptions or unusual ocean patterns that can cool or warm a specific month.
- The monthly data releases themselves, since one confirmed record settles the entire market.
How Resolution Works
Resolution relies on NASA GISS’s global Land-Ocean Temperature Index monthly table, which lists an anomaly figure for every month back to 1880. Each month of 2026 is compared against all prior versions of that same month. If any 2026 month is the warmest on record for that month — or ties the warmest — the market settles “Yes”; otherwise it settles “No”. Using a single, published, publicly checkable source keeps the outcome transparent, so every trader can confirm the result against the same official figures.
