This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of the Treasury sends any funds or assets via a blockchain by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the payment must be a publicly announced, official transaction involving the sending of assets or funds; exploratory or experimental transactions will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: A qualifying transaction requires an official US Treasury payment made in the ordinary course of government operations - such as disbursements, settlements, or transfers - conducted via a public blockchain. Pilot programs, proof-of-concept transactions, and transactions explicitly described as tests or experiments by the Treasury do not qualify. The public announcement confirming the transaction must occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of when the transaction itself took place. For purposes of this market, "Treasury" includes sub-bodies of the Treasury including the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Office of Financial Research, or a Treasury-authorized entity conducting a public transaction.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
Yes is priced at 10% and No at 91%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
Traders currently imply a 10% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
Total traded volume on this market is $2.3K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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