This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.
In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".
Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).
The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
5%+
$90 Volume
96%
6%+
$6 Volume
88%
7%+
$1.5K Volume
55%
8%+
$1.1K Volume
46%
9%+
$708 Volume
22%
10%+
$868 Volume
16%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?
At 93%, 5%+ has pulled far clear of 6%+ (87%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?
Traders price 5%+ at a 93% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 30 Jul 2026 (7 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?
Traders have put $4.2K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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