This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, July 30, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Thursday, July 30, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Resolution Source: www.wsj.com
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 30?
Up leads the field at 68%, with Down next at 32%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.
What do traders predict for S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 30?
Traders lean toward Up, pricing it at 68%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.
When does the S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 30 market resolve?
The market runs until 30 Jul 2026 (1 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 30?
$113.2K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 30 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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