This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, July 15, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Wednesday, July 15, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Resolution Source: www.wsj.com
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 15?
The money is on Up at 71%; Down follows at 29%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.
What do traders predict for S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 15?
Traders lean toward Up, pricing it at 71%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.
When does the S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 15 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 15 Jul 2026 (1 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 15?
$91.3K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 15 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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