This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on July 15 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on July 15 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices".
US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks
EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea
ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia
Resolution Source: www.wsj.com
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 15?
Up leads the field at 80%, with Down next at 20%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.
What do traders predict for S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 15?
The market makes Up the favorite at 80%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.
When does the S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 15 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 15 Jul 2026 (1 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 15?
$130.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 15 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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