This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
July 31
$2.6K Volume
1%
December 31
$934K Volume
4%
Resolved 2
April 30
$14.8K Volume
No
June 30
$1M Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Satoshi's identity be proven by?
The field is wide open: December 31 tops it at just 4%, with July 31 close behind at 1%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Satoshi's identity be proven by?
Right now the market's best guess is December 31 at 4% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Satoshi's identity be proven by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Satoshi's identity be proven by?
Total turnover stands at $2M. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Satoshi's identity be proven by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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