Politics · Elections

NJ-04 House Election Winner

$7.9K Volume
03/11/2026 00:00
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Republican Party
$5.4K Volume
94%
Democratic Party
$2.5K Volume
6%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for NJ-04 House Election Winner?
Republican Party dominates the field at 94%; the nearest challenger, Democratic Party, trades at just 6%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for NJ-04 House Election Winner?
Traders price Republican Party at a 94% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the NJ-04 House Election Winner market resolve?
The market runs until 3 Nov 2026 (101 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on NJ-04 House Election Winner?
Total turnover stands at $7.9K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade NJ-04 House Election Winner on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.

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