This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Ann Wagner
$4.9K Volume
99%
Ryan Sheridan
$423 Volume
1%
Brandon Wilkinson
$423 Volume
1%
Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes
$479 Volume
1%
Peter Pfeifer
$419 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for M0-02 Republican Primary Winner?
At 99%, Ann Wagner has pulled far clear of Candidate A (50%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for M0-02 Republican Primary Winner?
Traders price Ann Wagner at a 99% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the M0-02 Republican Primary Winner market resolve?
Mark 4 Aug 2026 (6 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on M0-02 Republican Primary Winner?
$6.6K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade M0-02 Republican Primary Winner on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
