This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for July 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for August 7, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
≤3.9%
$56 Volume
9%
4.0%
$10 Volume
9%
4.1%
$204 Volume
13%
4.2%
$738 Volume
34%
4.3%
$1.7K Volume
31%
4.4%
$582 Volume
16%
4.5%
$47 Volume
6%
4.6%
$335 Volume
5%
≥4.7%
$89 Volume
7%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for July Unemployment Rate?
The field is wide open: 4.2% tops it at just 34%, with 4.3% close behind at 31%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for July Unemployment Rate?
No strong consensus yet: 4.2% tops the implied probabilities at just 34%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the July Unemployment Rate market resolve?
The market runs until 7 Aug 2026 (28 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on July Unemployment Rate?
$2.7K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade July Unemployment Rate on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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