ISM · PMI

ISM Manufacturing PMI - July 2026

$2K Volume
03/08/2026 06:00
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<49.0
$1.6K Volume
2%
49.0–49.9
$349 Volume
10%
50.0–50.9
72%
51.0–51.9
69%
52.0–52.9
73%
53.0–53.9
72%
54.0–54.9
67%
55.0–55.9
65%
56.0–56.9
69%
57.0+
$62 Volume
24%

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.

The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.

Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for ISM Manufacturing PMI - July 2026?
Even the leader is cheap - 52.0–52.9 trades at 40%, 50.0–50.9 at 37%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for ISM Manufacturing PMI - July 2026?
No strong consensus yet: 52.0–52.9 tops the implied probabilities at just 40%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the ISM Manufacturing PMI - July 2026 market resolve?
Mark 3 Aug 2026 (23 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on ISM Manufacturing PMI - July 2026?
Traders have put $2K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade ISM Manufacturing PMI - July 2026 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.

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