Three real stories moved serious money on Polymarket in the last 24 hours: the Knicks pulled off the largest comeback in NBA Finals history and crushed San Antonio's title odds, Bitcoin steadied above $62,000 and emptied the crash-bet column, and overnight US strikes sent Iran-related risk markets jumping. Here is what moved, by how much, and why.
▼ Spurs title odds collapse after the biggest comeback in Finals history (-20pt)
Down 29 points in Game 4 on June 10, New York produced the largest comeback in NBA Finals history and edged San Antonio 107-106, capped by OG Anunoby's tip-in. The series now stands 3-1 Knicks, and the market repriced instantly: San Antonio's championship odds fell from 37% to 17% in 24 hours on $2.3M of volume.
The same swing shows up in the Finals MVP market - Anunoby jumped 22 points to 25%, suddenly within range of Jalen Brunson. Game 5 tips off Saturday night in New York, where the Knicks can close it out.
▲ Bitcoin steadies above $62K - the crash bets are unwinding (-44pt on the $60K line)
Bitcoin spent early June sliding toward monthly lows, and the weekly "what price will BTC hit" market priced a touch of $60,000 at 66% two days ago. That bet collapsed to 22% in 24 hours as BTC stabilized just above $62,000 - the June 11 strike market now puts "above $62,000" at 87%.
The driver is less drama than positioning: traders are sitting on hands ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, and Polymarket's Fed June market prices "no change" at 99%. With the downside scenario fading and ETF flows quiet, the path of least resistance this week has been a slow grind back up.
▲ Iran risk reprices after overnight US strikes (+15pt)
The market on Trump formally declaring the US-Iran ceasefire over moved sharply: "by June 30" jumped 15 points to 31%, and the near-term "by June 15" leg added 13 points to 18%. A separate market on Iran closing its own airspace by June 13 climbed 17 points to 31%. None of these are coin-flips yet - but a week ago they were priced as tail risks.
◎ Peru: the market has called it for Fujimori (97%)
Two days after the June 9 runoff, Polymarket has effectively called Peru: Keiko Fujimori trades at 97% on $5.3M of 24-hour volume, with the remaining churn concentrated in razor-thin margin-of-victory brackets as the final count narrows. The drama now is the margin, not the winner.
► Quick hits
Elon Musk's tweet-count market for June 5-12 swung 20 points to 56% on the 200-219 bucket - a reminder that even mechanical markets move hard when a deadline approaches. And the World Cup kicked off today with $101M traded on the winner market in 24 hours: Spain leads at 17%, Portugal 11%, Argentina 9%.
Track every market live on our predictions hub, or trade the movers on Polymarket.
Prices as of June 11, 2026. Movers selected by 24h price change weighted by volume, excluding in-game sports markets and micro-brackets.
