Argentina vs. Switzerland (Resolved)

Argentina enters the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinal as the defending champion with Lionel Messi leading a squad that produced a dramatic 3-2 comeback victory over Egypt on July 7 after trailing 2-0 late. This momentum, combined with superior attacking depth and historical success in knockout stages, underpins the 57.5% implied probability. Switzerland reached the same stage by edging Colombia 4-3 on penalties following a scoreless draw, showcasing disciplined defending and set-piece resilience that supports their 16.5% chance. The 27.5% draw price reflects the evenly matched styles typical of World Cup knockouts, where one defensive lapse or extra-time breakthrough can decide advancement to the semifinals in Kansas City on July 11.