As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is July 23, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa in combination with approved standard-of-care regimens for the treatment of multiple myeloma across currently approved Sarclisa IV indications by August 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An approval is defined as:
For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA)
For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced
For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA)
For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
The following constitute qualifying approvals:
Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit), Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints), Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
The following do not constitute qualifying approvals:
Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval
Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration
FDA requests for additional information or studies
Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates
Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only
Approval only for export or for use outside the United States
Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval
Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form
This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the FDA issues a Complete Response Letter (CRL) or explicitly declines to approve the application. If the drug sponsor withdraws the application before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "No" immediately.
If the listed drug is approved before the end of the specified period, the market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of potential Advisory Committee votes against approval or later withdrawal of approval.
Conditional approvals may include post-marketing requirements or commitments and still qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the FDA; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa?
Yes leads at 66% against 35% for No. That's a clear favorite, but not a done deal - live order-book prices shift with every trade.
What do traders predict for FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa?
Traders lean toward Yes, pricing it at 66%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.
When does the FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 23 Jul 2026 (14 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa?
Traders have put $239 through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade FDA approves Sanofi's Subcutaneous Sarclisa on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.