Trump · Copper

Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?

$5.4K Volume
31/12/2027 23:59
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December 31, 2026
$2K Volume
12%
December 31, 2027
$3.4K Volume
43%

HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 targets insulated copper conductors, over 600V up to 1,000V, not fitted with connectors.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a legally operative Section 232 instrument subjects all articles under this line to a duty above 0%, a tariff-rate quota, an absolute quota, or another quantitative restriction by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, legally operative Section 232 instruments include but are not limited to: a presidential proclamation, a Commerce-USTR determination under that proclamation's clause 11 process, another Federal Register or chapter 99 action under Section 232 authority, or an Act of Congress.

A qualifying instrument may name the line itself or any broader provision that fully includes it (e.g., tariff line 8544.49.30, subheading 8544.49, or heading 8544). If USITC renumbers the line, its successor will count the same way.

A qualifying instrument must be enacted, signed, or otherwise put into legal operation by the specified date, regardless of whether the instrument stipulates a later date of enforcement.

Tariff imposition will qualify regardless of whether there exist 0% in-quota rates, country carve-outs, metal-content thresholds, phased effective dates, or other conditions.

Only tariffs imposed on HTSUS statistical line 8544.49.3040 will qualify. Coverage of only a subset or end use (e.g., wind-turbine or data-center cable only), additions limited to sister line 8544.49.3080, investigation steps, reports, proposals, or announcements without a signed operative instrument, one chamber passage, instruments whose only effect is a 0% rate or an exemption, and tariffs under any other authority (e.g., Section 301, IEEPA, AD/CVD, reciprocal) will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by?
The field is wide open: December 31, 2027 tops it at just 43%, with December 31, 2026 close behind at 12%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by?
Right now the market's best guess is December 31, 2027 at 43% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2027 (527 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by?
$5.4K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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