Politics · Elections

CA-01 House Election Winner

$30.3K Volume
03/11/2026 00:00
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Democratic Party
$21.8K Volume
93%
Republican Party
$8.5K Volume
5%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for CA-01 House Election Winner?
Democratic Party dominates the field at 93%; the nearest challenger, Republican Party, trades at just 5%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for CA-01 House Election Winner?
With 93% implied for Democratic Party, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the CA-01 House Election Winner market resolve?
The market runs until 3 Nov 2026 (115 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on CA-01 House Election Winner?
Traders have put $30.3K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade CA-01 House Election Winner on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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