This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase and delivery or pickup by the general public in the United States within the specified timeframe. An announcement, unveiling, or pre-order period alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
February 28, 2027
$542 Volume
17%
March 31, 2027
$1.2K Volume
84%
April 30, 2027
$3.3K Volume
88%
Relevant Guides
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Base iPhone 18 released by?
The current front-runner is April 30, 2027 at 87%, ahead of March 31, 2027 at 74%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Base iPhone 18 released by?
Traders currently imply a 87% chance for April 30, 2027. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Base iPhone 18 released by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 May 2027 (179 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Base iPhone 18 released by?
Total traded volume on this market is $5.1K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Base iPhone 18 released by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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