This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
No Change
$10.9K Volume
87%
25 bps decrease
$1.7K Volume
10%
25 bps increase
$2.6K Volume
4%
50+ bps increase
$609 Volume
1%
50+ bps decrease
$935 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Bank of Canada Decision in October?
At 87%, No Change has pulled far clear of 25 bps decrease (10%). Prices stay live until resolution, but the market sees one clear outcome.
What do traders predict for Bank of Canada Decision in October?
With 87% implied for No Change, the market has largely made up its mind. Still a forecast, not a result: prices react instantly if the story changes.
When does the Bank of Canada Decision in October market resolve?
Mark 28 Oct 2026 (89 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Bank of Canada Decision in October?
Total turnover stands at $1.4K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Bank of Canada Decision in October on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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