This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Eli Crane (R)
$15.7K Volume
55%
Jonathan Nez (D)
$26.9K Volume
46%
Relevant Guides
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for AZ-02 House Election Winner?
The current front-runner is Eli Crane (R) at 54%, ahead of Jonathan Nez (D) at 45%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for AZ-02 House Election Winner?
Traders currently imply a 54% chance for Eli Crane (R). Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the AZ-02 House Election Winner market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 4 Nov 2026 (1 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on AZ-02 House Election Winner?
Total traded volume on this market is $42.6K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade AZ-02 House Election Winner on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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