This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Past
0-20
$2.4K Volume
51%
20-40
$344 Volume
29%
40-60
$770 Volume
26%
60-80
$810 Volume
8%
80+
$160 Volume
6%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
It's a genuine race: 0-20 edges the field at 48%, barely ahead of 20-40 at 26%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Traders give 0-20 a 48% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (30 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Traders have put $9K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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