This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 21, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on July 21, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day.
If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50.
Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date.
If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day.
Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered.
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Resolution Source: pythdata.app
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 21?
Up dominates the field at 96%; the nearest challenger, Down, trades at just 4%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 21?
Traders price Up at a 96% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 21 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 21 Jul 2026 (1 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 21?
Traders have put $7.6K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 21 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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