This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Venezuela become 51st state?
The market prices Yes at only 3%, with No at 97%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will Venezuela become 51st state?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 3%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will Venezuela become 51st state market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (173 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will Venezuela become 51st state?
Traders have put $385K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Will Venezuela become 51st state on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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