This market will resolve to "Yes" if Argentina makes Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Statements from Peter Thiel indicating intent to seek citizenship from Argentina will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". Statements from Argentina or its representatives indicating vague or conditional intent to make Peter Thiel a citizen will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Only Argentina's actually making Peter Thiel a citizen will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Honorary citizenship will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
This market will resolve according to statements from representatives of Argentina or Peter Thiel. This market may also resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?
Yes is the outsider here at 10%, while No trades at 91%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 10%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?
$806 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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